If MIL visited HOU today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +2.2 points for HOU at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.4

Net Rating

4.6

115.1

Offensive Rating

114.9

112.7

Defensive Rating

110.3

99.9

Pace

99.0

MIL (Away) HOU (Home)

Recent Form

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

Head-to-Head History

HOU wins

MIL wins

2026-04-01 MIL 113 @ HOU 119 HOU W

2025-11-09 MIL 122 @ HOU 115 MIL W

2025-02-25 MIL 97 @ HOU 100 HOU W

2024-11-18 MIL 100 @ HOU 101 HOU W

2024-01-06 MIL 108 @ HOU 112 HOU W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score