If MIL visited ORL today, our model would lean Orlando Magic with a 82.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -2.6 points for ORL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.4

Net Rating

-0.2

115.1

Offensive Rating

108.9

112.7

Defensive Rating

109.1

99.9

Pace

96.5

MIL (Away) ORL (Home)

Recent Form

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

Head-to-Head History

ORL wins

MIL wins

2026-03-08 MIL 130 @ ORL 91 MIL W

2026-02-11 MIL 116 @ ORL 108 MIL W

2026-02-09 MIL 99 @ ORL 118 ORL W

2025-03-08 MIL 111 @ ORL 109 MIL W

2025-01-15 MIL 93 @ ORL 122 ORL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 82.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score