If MIL visited PHI today, our model would lean Philadelphia 76ers with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -8.7 points for PHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.4

Net Rating

-6.3

115.1

Offensive Rating

111.0

112.7

Defensive Rating

117.3

99.9

Pace

98.1

MIL (Away) PHI (Home)

Recent Form

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

Head-to-Head History

PHI wins

MIL wins

2026-04-12 MIL 106 @ PHI 126 PHI W

2026-01-27 MIL 122 @ PHI 139 PHI W

2025-12-05 MIL 116 @ PHI 101 MIL W

2025-11-20 MIL 123 @ PHI 114 MIL W

2025-04-03 MIL 126 @ PHI 113 MIL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score