If MIL visited PHX today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -5.4 points for PHX at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.4

Net Rating

-3.0

115.1

Offensive Rating

114.7

112.7

Defensive Rating

117.7

99.9

Pace

98.3

MIL (Away) PHX (Home)

Recent Form

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

PHX wins

MIL wins

2026-03-21 MIL 108 @ PHX 105 MIL W

2026-03-10 MIL 129 @ PHX 114 MIL W

2025-04-01 MIL 123 @ PHX 133 PHX W

2025-03-24 MIL 106 @ PHX 108 PHX W

2024-03-17 MIL 129 @ PHX 140 PHX W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score