If MIL visited UTA today, our model would lean Utah Jazz with a 52.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -11.6 points for UTA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.4

Net Rating

-9.2

115.1

Offensive Rating

110.2

112.7

Defensive Rating

119.4

99.9

Pace

100.8

MIL (Away) UTA (Home)

Recent Form

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

UTA wins

MIL wins

2026-03-19 MIL 96 @ UTA 128 UTA W

2026-03-07 MIL 99 @ UTA 113 UTA W

2025-01-27 MIL 125 @ UTA 110 MIL W

2024-11-07 MIL 100 @ UTA 123 UTA W

2024-02-04 MIL 108 @ UTA 123 UTA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 52.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score