If MIN visited CHA today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -14.1 points for CHA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

5.0

Net Rating

-9.1

115.7

Offensive Rating

106.7

110.8

Defensive Rating

115.7

98.0

Pace

98.2

MIN (Away) CHA (Home)

Recent Form

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

Head-to-Head History

CHA wins

MIN wins

2026-04-05 MIN 122 @ CHA 108 MIN W

2025-11-01 MIN 122 @ CHA 105 MIN W

2025-03-05 MIN 125 @ CHA 110 MIN W

2024-11-04 MIN 93 @ CHA 114 CHA W

2024-01-22 MIN 128 @ CHA 125 MIN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score