If MIN visited CHI today, our model would lean Minnesota Timberwolves with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -6.6 points for CHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

5.0

Net Rating

-1.6

115.7

Offensive Rating

113.2

110.8

Defensive Rating

114.8

98.0

Pace

103.6

MIN (Away) CHI (Home)

Recent Form

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

Head-to-Head History

CHI wins

MIN wins

2026-01-22 MIN 120 @ CHI 115 MIN W

2025-12-29 MIN 136 @ CHI 101 MIN W

2025-02-05 MIN 108 @ CHI 127 CHI W

2024-11-07 MIN 135 @ CHI 119 MIN W

2024-03-31 MIN 109 @ CHI 101 MIN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score