If MIN visited DAL today, our model would lean Minnesota Timberwolves with a 77.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -6.3 points for DAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

5.0

Net Rating

-1.3

115.7

Offensive Rating

113.7

110.8

Defensive Rating

115.0

98.0

Pace

100.2

MIN (Away) DAL (Home)

Recent Form

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

Head-to-Head History

DAL wins

MIN wins

2026-03-30 MIN 124 @ DAL 94 MIN W

2026-02-20 MIN 111 @ DAL 122 DAL W

2026-01-28 MIN 118 @ DAL 105 MIN W

2025-11-17 MIN 96 @ DAL 120 DAL W

2025-01-22 MIN 115 @ DAL 114 MIN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 77.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score