If MIN visited NOP today, our model would lean Minnesota Timberwolves with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -14.4 points for NOP at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

5.0

Net Rating

-9.4

115.7

Offensive Rating

109.7

110.8

Defensive Rating

119.1

98.0

Pace

99.8

MIN (Away) NOP (Home)

Recent Form

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

Head-to-Head History

NOP wins

MIN wins

2026-04-12 MIN 126 @ NOP 132 NOP W

2026-02-06 MIN 119 @ NOP 115 MIN W

2025-12-04 MIN 125 @ NOP 116 MIN W

2025-12-02 MIN 149 @ NOP 142 MIN W

2025-03-21 MIN 93 @ NOP 134 NOP W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score