If MIN visited ORL today, our model would lean Orlando Magic with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -5.2 points for ORL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

5.0

Net Rating

-0.2

115.7

Offensive Rating

108.9

110.8

Defensive Rating

109.1

98.0

Pace

96.5

MIN (Away) ORL (Home)

Recent Form

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

Head-to-Head History

ORL wins

MIN wins

2026-04-08 MIN 120 @ ORL 132 ORL W

2026-03-07 MIN 119 @ ORL 92 MIN W

2025-03-14 MIN 111 @ ORL 118 ORL W

2025-01-09 MIN 104 @ ORL 89 MIN W

2024-02-02 MIN 108 @ ORL 106 MIN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score