If MIN visited PHX today, our model would lean Minnesota Timberwolves with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -8.0 points for PHX at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

5.0

Net Rating

-3.0

115.7

Offensive Rating

114.7

110.8

Defensive Rating

117.7

98.0

Pace

98.3

MIN (Away) PHX (Home)

Recent Form

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

PHX wins

MIN wins

2026-03-17 MIN 104 @ PHX 116 PHX W

2025-12-08 MIN 108 @ PHX 105 MIN W

2025-11-21 MIN 113 @ PHX 114 PHX W

2025-03-28 MIN 109 @ PHX 124 PHX W

2025-03-02 MIN 116 @ PHX 98 MIN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score