If MIN visited TOR today, our model would lean Minnesota Timberwolves with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -9.1 points for TOR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

5.0

Net Rating

-4.1

115.7

Offensive Rating

109.6

110.8

Defensive Rating

113.6

98.0

Pace

100.6

MIN (Away) TOR (Home)

Recent Form

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

Head-to-Head History

TOR wins

MIN wins

2026-03-05 MIN 107 @ TOR 115 TOR W

2026-02-04 MIN 128 @ TOR 126 MIN W

2024-11-21 MIN 105 @ TOR 110 TOR W

2024-10-26 MIN 101 @ TOR 112 TOR W

2024-04-03 MIN 85 @ TOR 133 TOR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score