If NOP visited ATL today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +8.3 points for ATL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.4

Net Rating

-1.1

109.7

Offensive Rating

113.7

119.1

Defensive Rating

114.8

99.8

Pace

103.4

NOP (Away) ATL (Home)

Recent Form

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

Head-to-Head History

ATL wins

NOP wins

2026-01-07 NOP 100 @ ATL 117 ATL W

2025-11-22 NOP 115 @ ATL 98 NOP W

2024-12-02 NOP 112 @ ATL 124 ATL W

2024-11-03 NOP 126 @ ATL 111 NOP W

2024-03-10 NOP 116 @ ATL 103 NOP W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score