If NOP visited GSW today, our model would lean Golden State Warriors with a 63.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +12.6 points for GSW at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.4

Net Rating

3.2

109.7

Offensive Rating

114.2

119.1

Defensive Rating

111.0

99.8

Pace

99.4

NOP (Away) GSW (Home)

Recent Form

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

GSW wins

NOP wins

2026-02-24 NOP 109 @ GSW 113 GSW W

2025-11-29 NOP 96 @ GSW 104 GSW W

2025-11-16 NOP 124 @ GSW 106 NOP W

2025-03-28 NOP 111 @ GSW 95 NOP W

2024-11-22 NOP 112 @ GSW 108 NOP W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score