If NOP visited IND today, our model would lean New Orleans Pelicans with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +11.5 points for IND at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.4

Net Rating

2.1

109.7

Offensive Rating

115.4

119.1

Defensive Rating

113.3

99.8

Pace

100.8

NOP (Away) IND (Home)

Recent Form

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

IND wins

NOP wins

2026-01-16 NOP 119 @ IND 127 IND W

2025-12-20 NOP 109 @ IND 128 IND W

2024-12-15 NOP 104 @ IND 119 IND W

2024-11-25 NOP 110 @ IND 114 IND W

2024-11-01 NOP 118 @ IND 125 IND W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score