If NOP visited MIL today, our model would lean New Orleans Pelicans with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +11.8 points for MIL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.4

Net Rating

2.4

109.7

Offensive Rating

115.1

119.1

Defensive Rating

112.7

99.8

Pace

99.9

NOP (Away) MIL (Home)

Recent Form

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

Head-to-Head History

MIL wins

NOP wins

2026-02-20 NOP 139 @ MIL 118 NOP W

2026-02-04 NOP 137 @ MIL 141 MIL W

2025-04-10 NOP 111 @ MIL 136 MIL W

2025-04-06 NOP 111 @ MIL 107 NOP W

2024-03-28 NOP 100 @ MIL 107 MIL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score