If NOP visited SAS today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +6.6 points for SAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.4

Net Rating

-2.8

109.7

Offensive Rating

113.5

119.1

Defensive Rating

116.3

99.8

Pace

100.1

NOP (Away) SAS (Home)

Recent Form

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

SAS wins

NOP wins

2026-01-25 NOP 104 @ SAS 95 NOP W

2025-12-08 NOP 135 @ SAS 132 NOP W

2025-11-08 NOP 119 @ SAS 126 SAS W

2025-10-24 NOP 120 @ SAS 116 NOP W

2025-03-15 NOP 115 @ SAS 119 SAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score