If NOP visited UTA today, our model would lean New Orleans Pelicans with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +0.2 points for UTA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.4

Net Rating

-9.2

109.7

Offensive Rating

110.2

119.1

Defensive Rating

119.4

99.8

Pace

100.8

NOP (Away) UTA (Home)

Recent Form

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

UTA wins

NOP wins

2026-04-07 NOP 137 @ UTA 156 UTA W

2026-02-28 NOP 115 @ UTA 105 NOP W

2026-02-26 NOP 129 @ UTA 118 NOP W

2025-03-02 NOP 128 @ UTA 121 NOP W

2025-01-20 NOP 119 @ UTA 123 UTA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score