If OKC visited CHA today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 58.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -21.8 points for CHA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

12.7

Net Rating

-9.1

119.2

Offensive Rating

106.7

106.6

Defensive Rating

115.7

100.9

Pace

98.2

OKC (Away) CHA (Home)

Recent Form

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

Head-to-Head History

CHA wins

OKC wins

2026-01-05 OKC 124 @ CHA 97 OKC W

2025-11-15 OKC 109 @ CHA 96 OKC W

2025-03-21 OKC 106 @ CHA 141 CHA W

2024-12-28 OKC 106 @ CHA 94 OKC W

2024-04-07 OKC 121 @ CHA 118 OKC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 58.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score