If OKC visited CHI today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 83.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -14.3 points for CHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

12.7

Net Rating

-1.6

119.2

Offensive Rating

113.2

106.6

Defensive Rating

114.8

100.9

Pace

103.6

OKC (Away) CHI (Home)

Recent Form

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

Head-to-Head History

CHI wins

OKC wins

2026-03-27 OKC 113 @ CHI 131 CHI W

2026-03-03 OKC 116 @ CHI 108 OKC W

2025-03-31 OKC 117 @ CHI 145 CHI W

2024-10-26 OKC 114 @ CHI 95 OKC W

2023-11-22 OKC 102 @ CHI 116 CHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 83.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score