If OKC visited CLE today, our model would lean Cleveland Cavaliers with a 58.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -3.5 points for CLE at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

12.7

Net Rating

9.2

119.2

Offensive Rating

121.0

106.6

Defensive Rating

111.8

100.9

Pace

100.3

OKC (Away) CLE (Home)

Recent Form

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

Head-to-Head History

CLE wins

OKC wins

2026-02-22 OKC 113 @ CLE 121 CLE W

2026-01-19 OKC 136 @ CLE 104 OKC W

2025-01-16 OKC 114 @ CLE 134 CLE W

2025-01-08 OKC 122 @ CLE 129 CLE W

2023-11-08 OKC 120 @ CLE 128 CLE W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 58.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score