If OKC visited DAL today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -14.0 points for DAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

12.7

Net Rating

-1.3

119.2

Offensive Rating

113.7

106.6

Defensive Rating

115.0

100.9

Pace

100.2

OKC (Away) DAL (Home)

Recent Form

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

Head-to-Head History

DAL wins

OKC wins

2026-03-01 OKC 100 @ DAL 87 OKC W

2025-12-05 OKC 111 @ DAL 132 DAL W

2025-10-27 OKC 101 @ DAL 94 OKC W

2025-01-23 OKC 121 @ DAL 115 OKC W

2025-01-17 OKC 98 @ DAL 106 DAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score