If OKC visited DET today, our model would lean Detroit Pistons with a 65.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -10.6 points for DET at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

12.7

Net Rating

2.1

119.2

Offensive Rating

114.6

106.6

Defensive Rating

112.5

100.9

Pace

100.3

OKC (Away) DET (Home)

Recent Form

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

DET 67-29 L1 Avg margin last 5: -6.0

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

DET wins

OKC wins

2026-03-30 OKC 110 @ DET 114 DET W

2026-02-25 OKC 116 @ DET 124 DET W

2025-04-02 OKC 103 @ DET 119 DET W

2025-03-15 OKC 113 @ DET 107 OKC W

2024-01-28 OKC 104 @ DET 120 DET W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score