If OKC visited GSW today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -9.5 points for GSW at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

12.7

Net Rating

3.2

119.2

Offensive Rating

114.2

106.6

Defensive Rating

111.0

100.9

Pace

99.4

OKC (Away) GSW (Home)

Recent Form

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

GSW wins

OKC wins

2026-03-07 OKC 97 @ GSW 104 GSW W

2026-01-02 OKC 131 @ GSW 94 OKC W

2025-12-02 OKC 124 @ GSW 112 OKC W

2025-11-11 OKC 102 @ GSW 126 GSW W

2025-01-29 OKC 109 @ GSW 116 GSW W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score