If OKC visited PHI today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 73.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -19.0 points for PHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

12.7

Net Rating

-6.3

119.2

Offensive Rating

111.0

106.6

Defensive Rating

117.3

100.9

Pace

98.1

OKC (Away) PHI (Home)

Recent Form

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

Head-to-Head History

PHI wins

OKC wins

2026-03-23 OKC 123 @ PHI 103 OKC W

2025-12-28 OKC 104 @ PHI 129 PHI W

2025-03-19 OKC 100 @ PHI 133 PHI W

2025-01-14 OKC 118 @ PHI 102 OKC W

2024-04-02 OKC 105 @ PHI 109 PHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 73.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score