If OKC visited SAC today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -12.1 points for SAC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

12.7

Net Rating

0.6

119.2

Offensive Rating

115.9

106.6

Defensive Rating

115.3

100.9

Pace

98.9

OKC (Away) SAC (Home)

Recent Form

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

SAC 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.2

L POR

W GSW

L GSW

L LAC

W NOP

Head-to-Head History

SAC wins

OKC wins

2025-11-19 OKC 99 @ SAC 113 SAC W

2025-11-07 OKC 132 @ SAC 101 OKC W

2025-10-28 OKC 101 @ SAC 107 SAC W

2025-03-25 OKC 121 @ SAC 105 OKC W

2025-02-01 OKC 110 @ SAC 144 SAC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score