If OKC visited SAS today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -15.5 points for SAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

12.7

Net Rating

-2.8

119.2

Offensive Rating

113.5

106.6

Defensive Rating

116.3

100.9

Pace

100.1

OKC (Away) SAS (Home)

Recent Form

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

SAS wins

OKC wins

2026-05-30 OKC 111 @ SAS 103 OKC W

2026-05-28 OKC 91 @ SAS 118 SAS W

2026-05-26 OKC 114 @ SAS 127 SAS W

2026-05-24 OKC 82 @ SAS 103 SAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score