If OKC visited TOR today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 63.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -16.8 points for TOR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

12.7

Net Rating

-4.1

119.2

Offensive Rating

109.6

106.6

Defensive Rating

113.6

100.9

Pace

100.6

OKC (Away) TOR (Home)

Recent Form

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

Head-to-Head History

TOR wins

OKC wins

2026-02-24 OKC 116 @ TOR 107 OKC W

2026-01-25 OKC 103 @ TOR 101 OKC W

2025-02-07 OKC 109 @ TOR 121 TOR W

2024-12-05 OKC 129 @ TOR 92 OKC W

2024-03-22 OKC 123 @ TOR 103 OKC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score