If OKC visited WAS today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -24.9 points for WAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

12.7

Net Rating

-12.2

119.2

Offensive Rating

105.8

106.6

Defensive Rating

118.0

100.9

Pace

101.8

OKC (Away) WAS (Home)

Recent Form

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

Head-to-Head History

WAS wins

OKC wins

2026-03-21 OKC 132 @ WAS 111 OKC W

2025-10-30 OKC 108 @ WAS 127 WAS W

2025-01-12 OKC 136 @ WAS 95 OKC W

2024-12-23 OKC 105 @ WAS 123 WAS W

2024-02-23 OKC 106 @ WAS 147 WAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score