If ORL visited ATL today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 65.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -0.9 points for ATL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-0.2

Net Rating

-1.1

108.9

Offensive Rating

113.7

109.1

Defensive Rating

114.8

96.5

Pace

103.4

ORL (Away) ATL (Home)

Recent Form

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

Head-to-Head History

ATL wins

ORL wins

2026-04-01 ORL 130 @ ATL 101 ORL W

2026-03-16 ORL 112 @ ATL 124 ATL W

2025-11-04 ORL 112 @ ATL 127 ATL W

2025-10-24 ORL 111 @ ATL 107 ORL W

2025-04-13 ORL 105 @ ATL 117 ATL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score