If ORL visited CLE today, our model would lean Cleveland Cavaliers with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +9.4 points for CLE at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-0.2

Net Rating

9.2

108.9

Offensive Rating

121.0

109.1

Defensive Rating

111.8

96.5

Pace

100.3

ORL (Away) CLE (Home)

Recent Form

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

Head-to-Head History

CLE wins

ORL wins

2026-03-24 ORL 131 @ CLE 136 CLE W

2026-03-11 ORL 122 @ CLE 128 CLE W

2026-01-26 ORL 98 @ CLE 114 CLE W

2026-01-24 ORL 119 @ CLE 105 ORL W

2025-03-16 ORL 108 @ CLE 103 ORL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score