If ORL visited DEN today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 74.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +4.0 points for DEN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-0.2

Net Rating

3.8

108.9

Offensive Rating

118.9

109.1

Defensive Rating

115.1

96.5

Pace

100.7

ORL (Away) DEN (Home)

Recent Form

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

Head-to-Head History

DEN wins

ORL wins

2025-12-27 ORL 126 @ DEN 127 DEN W

2025-12-18 ORL 115 @ DEN 126 DEN W

2025-02-06 ORL 90 @ DEN 112 DEN W

2025-01-19 ORL 113 @ DEN 100 ORL W

2024-01-05 ORL 122 @ DEN 120 ORL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score