If ORL visited MIL today, our model would lean Orlando Magic with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +2.6 points for MIL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-0.2

Net Rating

2.4

108.9

Offensive Rating

115.1

109.1

Defensive Rating

112.7

96.5

Pace

99.9

ORL (Away) MIL (Home)

Recent Form

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

Head-to-Head History

MIL wins

ORL wins

2026-03-08 ORL 130 @ MIL 91 ORL W

2026-02-11 ORL 116 @ MIL 108 ORL W

2026-02-09 ORL 99 @ MIL 118 MIL W

2025-03-08 ORL 111 @ MIL 109 ORL W

2025-01-15 ORL 93 @ MIL 122 MIL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score