If ORL visited MIN today, our model would lean Minnesota Timberwolves with a 61.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +5.2 points for MIN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-0.2

Net Rating

5.0

108.9

Offensive Rating

115.7

109.1

Defensive Rating

110.8

96.5

Pace

98.0

ORL (Away) MIN (Home)

Recent Form

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

MIN wins

ORL wins

2026-04-08 ORL 120 @ MIN 132 MIN W

2026-03-07 ORL 119 @ MIN 92 ORL W

2025-03-14 ORL 111 @ MIN 118 MIN W

2025-01-09 ORL 104 @ MIN 89 ORL W

2024-02-02 ORL 108 @ MIN 106 ORL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score