If ORL visited NOP today, our model would lean Orlando Magic with a 57.1% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -9.2 points for NOP at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-0.2

Net Rating

-9.4

108.9

Offensive Rating

109.7

109.1

Defensive Rating

119.1

96.5

Pace

99.8

ORL (Away) NOP (Home)

Recent Form

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

Head-to-Head History

NOP wins

ORL wins

2026-04-05 ORL 112 @ NOP 108 ORL W

2026-01-11 ORL 118 @ NOP 128 NOP W

2025-03-13 ORL 113 @ NOP 93 ORL W

2024-11-08 ORL 88 @ NOP 115 NOP W

2024-04-03 ORL 117 @ NOP 108 ORL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 57.1% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score