If ORL visited UTA today, our model would lean Orlando Magic with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -9.0 points for UTA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-0.2

Net Rating

-9.2

108.9

Offensive Rating

110.2

109.1

Defensive Rating

119.4

96.5

Pace

100.8

ORL (Away) UTA (Home)

Recent Form

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

UTA wins

ORL wins

2026-02-07 ORL 117 @ UTA 120 UTA W

2025-12-20 ORL 128 @ UTA 127 ORL W

2025-02-01 ORL 99 @ UTA 113 UTA W

2025-01-05 ORL 105 @ UTA 92 ORL W

2024-02-29 ORL 107 @ UTA 115 UTA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score