If ORL visited WAS today, our model would lean Orlando Magic with a 77.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -12.0 points for WAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-0.2

Net Rating

-12.2

108.9

Offensive Rating

105.8

109.1

Defensive Rating

118.0

96.5

Pace

101.8

ORL (Away) WAS (Home)

Recent Form

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

Head-to-Head History

WAS wins

ORL wins

2026-03-12 ORL 131 @ WAS 136 WAS W

2026-03-03 ORL 109 @ WAS 126 WAS W

2026-01-06 ORL 112 @ WAS 120 WAS W

2025-11-01 ORL 125 @ WAS 94 ORL W

2025-04-03 ORL 109 @ WAS 97 ORL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 77.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score