If PHI visited BOS today, our model would lean Boston Celtics with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +15.7 points for BOS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-6.3

Net Rating

9.4

111.0

Offensive Rating

119.5

117.3

Defensive Rating

110.1

98.1

Pace

96.6

PHI (Away) BOS (Home)

Recent Form

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

Head-to-Head History

BOS wins

PHI wins

2026-05-02 PHI 109 @ BOS 100 PHI W

2026-04-30 PHI 93 @ BOS 106 BOS W

2026-04-28 PHI 113 @ BOS 97 PHI W

2026-04-26 PHI 128 @ BOS 96 PHI W

2026-04-24 PHI 108 @ BOS 100 PHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score