If PHI visited DAL today, our model would lean Philadelphia 76ers with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +5.0 points for DAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-6.3

Net Rating

-1.3

111.0

Offensive Rating

113.7

117.3

Defensive Rating

115.0

98.1

Pace

100.2

PHI (Away) DAL (Home)

Recent Form

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

Head-to-Head History

DAL wins

PHI wins

2026-01-01 PHI 123 @ DAL 108 PHI W

2025-12-20 PHI 114 @ DAL 121 DAL W

2025-03-16 PHI 130 @ DAL 125 PHI W

2025-02-04 PHI 116 @ DAL 118 DAL W

2024-03-03 PHI 120 @ DAL 116 PHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score