If PHI visited DET today, our model would lean Philadelphia 76ers with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +8.4 points for DET at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-6.3

Net Rating

2.1

111.0

Offensive Rating

114.6

117.3

Defensive Rating

112.5

98.1

Pace

100.3

PHI (Away) DET (Home)

Recent Form

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

DET 67-29 L1 Avg margin last 5: -6.0

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

DET wins

PHI wins

2026-04-04 PHI 116 @ DET 93 PHI W

2026-03-12 PHI 109 @ DET 131 DET W

2025-11-14 PHI 105 @ DET 114 DET W

2025-11-09 PHI 111 @ DET 108 PHI W

2025-02-07 PHI 112 @ DET 125 DET W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score