If PHI visited GSW today, our model would lean Philadelphia 76ers with a 57.1% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +9.5 points for GSW at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-6.3

Net Rating

3.2

111.0

Offensive Rating

114.2

117.3

Defensive Rating

111.0

98.1

Pace

99.4

PHI (Away) GSW (Home)

Recent Form

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

GSW wins

PHI wins

2026-02-03 PHI 113 @ GSW 94 PHI W

2025-12-04 PHI 98 @ GSW 99 GSW W

2025-03-01 PHI 119 @ GSW 126 GSW W

2025-01-02 PHI 105 @ GSW 139 GSW W

2024-02-07 PHI 127 @ GSW 104 PHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 57.1% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score