If PHI visited MIL today, our model would lean Philadelphia 76ers with a 77.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +8.7 points for MIL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-6.3

Net Rating

2.4

111.0

Offensive Rating

115.1

117.3

Defensive Rating

112.7

98.1

Pace

99.9

PHI (Away) MIL (Home)

Recent Form

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

Head-to-Head History

MIL wins

PHI wins

2026-04-12 PHI 106 @ MIL 126 MIL W

2026-01-27 PHI 122 @ MIL 139 MIL W

2025-12-05 PHI 116 @ MIL 101 PHI W

2025-11-20 PHI 123 @ MIL 114 PHI W

2025-04-03 PHI 126 @ MIL 113 PHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 77.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score