If PHI visited ORL today, our model would lean Orlando Magic with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +6.1 points for ORL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-6.3

Net Rating

-0.2

111.0

Offensive Rating

108.9

117.3

Defensive Rating

109.1

98.1

Pace

96.5

PHI (Away) ORL (Home)

Recent Form

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

Head-to-Head History

ORL wins

PHI wins

2026-01-09 PHI 103 @ ORL 91 PHI W

2025-11-25 PHI 144 @ ORL 103 PHI W

2025-10-27 PHI 124 @ ORL 136 ORL W

2025-01-12 PHI 99 @ ORL 104 ORL W

2024-12-06 PHI 94 @ ORL 102 ORL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score