If PHI visited SAS today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +3.5 points for SAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-6.3

Net Rating

-2.8

111.0

Offensive Rating

113.5

117.3

Defensive Rating

116.3

98.1

Pace

100.1

PHI (Away) SAS (Home)

Recent Form

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

SAS wins

PHI wins

2026-04-06 PHI 102 @ SAS 115 SAS W

2026-03-03 PHI 131 @ SAS 91 PHI W

2025-03-21 PHI 120 @ SAS 128 SAS W

2024-12-23 PHI 106 @ SAS 111 SAS W

2024-04-07 PHI 133 @ SAS 126 PHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score