If PHI visited TOR today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +2.2 points for TOR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-6.3

Net Rating

-4.1

111.0

Offensive Rating

109.6

117.3

Defensive Rating

113.6

98.1

Pace

100.6

PHI (Away) TOR (Home)

Recent Form

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

Head-to-Head History

TOR wins

PHI wins

2026-01-12 PHI 115 @ TOR 102 PHI W

2026-01-11 PHI 115 @ TOR 116 TOR W

2025-11-19 PHI 121 @ TOR 112 PHI W

2025-11-08 PHI 120 @ TOR 130 TOR W

2025-03-30 PHI 127 @ TOR 109 PHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score