If PHX visited ATL today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +1.9 points for ATL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-3.0

Net Rating

-1.1

114.7

Offensive Rating

113.7

117.7

Defensive Rating

114.8

98.3

Pace

103.4

PHX (Away) ATL (Home)

Recent Form

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

Head-to-Head History

ATL wins

PHX wins

2026-01-23 PHX 103 @ ATL 110 ATL W

2025-11-16 PHX 124 @ ATL 122 PHX W

2025-01-14 PHX 117 @ ATL 122 ATL W

2025-01-09 PHX 115 @ ATL 123 ATL W

2024-03-21 PHX 115 @ ATL 128 ATL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score