If PHX visited BOS today, our model would lean Boston Celtics with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +12.4 points for BOS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-3.0

Net Rating

9.4

114.7

Offensive Rating

119.5

117.7

Defensive Rating

110.1

98.3

Pace

96.6

PHX (Away) BOS (Home)

Recent Form

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

Head-to-Head History

BOS wins

PHX wins

2026-03-16 PHX 112 @ BOS 120 BOS W

2026-02-24 PHX 97 @ BOS 81 PHX W

2025-04-04 PHX 103 @ BOS 123 BOS W

2025-03-26 PHX 132 @ BOS 102 PHX W

2024-03-14 PHX 112 @ BOS 127 BOS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score