If PHX visited CHA today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -6.1 points for CHA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-3.0

Net Rating

-9.1

114.7

Offensive Rating

106.7

117.7

Defensive Rating

115.7

98.3

Pace

98.2

PHX (Away) CHA (Home)

Recent Form

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

Head-to-Head History

CHA wins

PHX wins

2026-04-02 PHX 107 @ CHA 127 CHA W

2026-03-08 PHX 99 @ CHA 111 CHA W

2025-01-12 PHX 113 @ CHA 120 CHA W

2025-01-07 PHX 104 @ CHA 115 CHA W

2024-03-15 PHX 107 @ CHA 96 PHX W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score