If PHX visited CLE today, our model would lean Cleveland Cavaliers with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +12.2 points for CLE at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-3.0

Net Rating

9.2

114.7

Offensive Rating

121.0

117.7

Defensive Rating

111.8

98.3

Pace

100.3

PHX (Away) CLE (Home)

Recent Form

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

Head-to-Head History

CLE wins

PHX wins

2026-01-30 PHX 113 @ CLE 126 CLE W

2025-12-31 PHX 113 @ CLE 129 CLE W

2025-03-21 PHX 112 @ CLE 123 CLE W

2025-01-20 PHX 92 @ CLE 118 CLE W

2024-04-03 PHX 101 @ CLE 122 CLE W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score