If PHX visited DEN today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +6.8 points for DEN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-3.0

Net Rating

3.8

114.7

Offensive Rating

118.9

117.7

Defensive Rating

115.1

98.3

Pace

100.7

PHX (Away) DEN (Home)

Recent Form

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

Head-to-Head History

DEN wins

PHX wins

2026-03-24 PHX 125 @ DEN 123 PHX W

2025-11-29 PHX 130 @ DEN 112 PHX W

2025-10-25 PHX 111 @ DEN 133 DEN W

2025-03-07 PHX 141 @ DEN 149 DEN W

2025-02-08 PHX 122 @ DEN 105 PHX W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score